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The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship Of The Small Minority
A shorter version (reduced by 97.0%) can be found on IndiaSpeaks. This is an extended summary, original article can be found here
Extended Summary:
The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship Of The Small Minority. So the minority rule may produce a larger share of halal food in the stores than warranted by the proportion of halal eaters in the population, but with a headwind somewhere because some people may have a taboo against Moslem food. (What we call GMOs in this context means transgenic food, entailing the transfer of genes from a foreign organism or species). In promoting genetically modified food via all manner of lobbying, purchasing of congressmen, and overt scientific propaganda (with smear campaigns against such persons as yours truly), the big agricultural companies foolishly believed that all they needed was to win the majority. Consider that transgenic-GMO eaters will eat nonGMOs, but not the reverse. Say you have a corporate event, a wedding, or a lavish party to celebrate the fall of the Saudi Arabian regime, the bankruptcy of the rent-seeking investment bank Goldman Sachs, or the public reviling of Ray Kotcher, chairman of Ketchum the public relation firm that smears scientists and scientific whistleblowers on behalf of big corporations. You just select everything non-GMO, provided the price difference is not consequential. Big Ag (the large agricultural firms) did not realise that this is the equivalent of entering a game in which one needed to not just win more points than the adversary, but win ninety-seven percent of the total points just to be safe. The method of analysis employed here is called renormalisation group, a powerful apparatus in mathematical physics that allows us to see how things scale up (or down). Each box contains four smaller boxes. Assume the smaller unit contains four people, a family of four. We renormalise once as we move up: the stubborn daughter manages to impose her rule on the four and the unit is now all pink, i. Now, step three, you have the family going to a barbecue party attended by three other families. By some coincidence, the day before the Boston barbecue, I was flaneuring in New York, and I dropped by the office of a friend I wanted to prevent from working, that is, engage in an activity that when abused, causes the loss of mental clarity, in addition to bad posture and loss of definition in the facial features. He introduced me to his research and showed me a computer model of elections by which it suffices that some minority exceeds a certain level for its choices to prevail. But some of the flexible voters can also vote for that extreme faction, just as nonKosher people can eat Kosher, and these people are the ones to watch out for as they may swell the numbers of votes for the extreme party. Rory Sutherland suggested that this explains why some fast-food chains, such as McDonald thrive, not because they offer a great product, but because they are not vetoed in a certain socio-economic groupand by a small proportions of people in that group at that. It is also a safe bet in shady places with few regulars where the food variance from expectation can be consequentialI am writing these lines in Milans central train station and as offensive as it can be to a visitor from far away, McDonalds is one of the few restaurants there. Rory wrote to me about the asymmetry beer-wine and the choices made for parties: Once you have ten percent or more women at a party, you cannot serve only beer. This strategy of the best lower bound might have been played by the Khazars looking to chose between Islam, Judaism, and Christianity. Judaism, they replied. Judaim it was and the tribe converted. It all started with the asymmetric rule that those who are nonnative in English know (bad) English, but the reverse (English speakers knowing other languages) is less likely. We can thus get some intuition on how the emergence of lingua franca languages can come from minority rulesand that is a point that is not visible to linguists. It was the Persians who speak an Indo-European language who spread Aramaic, the language of Assyria, Syria, and Babylon. This led to the oddity of Aramaic being used in Mongolia, as records were maintained in the Syriac alphabet (Syriac is the Eastern dialect of Aramaic). For during the Hellenistic era, Greek replaced Aramaic as the lingua franca in the Levant, and the scribes of Damascus maintained their records in Greek. A French Canadian friend from Montreal, Jean-Louis Rheault, commented as follows, bemoaning the loss of language of French Canadians outside narrowly provincial areas. The original Islamic rulers werent particularly interested in converting Christians as these provided them with tax revenues the proselytism of Islam did not address those called people of the book, i. In fact, my ancestors who survived thirteen centuries under Muslim rule saw advantages in not being Muslim: mostly in the avoidance of military conscription. Second, becoming Muslim is irreversible, as apostasy is the heaviest crime under the religion, sanctioned by the death penalty. He later divorced, but did not revert to the faith of his ancestors. Likewise, one can see how Judaism doesnt spread and tends to stay in the minority, as the religion has opposite rules: the mother is required to be Jewish, causing interfaith marriages to leave the community. Egypt has a flat terrain. allows the asymmetric rule to prevail) we saw earlier in the chapter that for Kosher rules to work, one needed Jews to be somewhat spread out across the country. Egypts Copts suffered from another problem: the irreversibility of Islamic conversions. Little by little a Christian or Jewish family bearing the marrano-style conversion becomes truly converted, as, a couple of generations later, the descendants forget the arrangement of their ancestors. Roman pagans were initially tolerant of Christians, as the tradition was to share gods with other members of the empire. But Christians were intolerant of Roman paganism. All we have is the bit we know about the reversion to Christianity during the emperor Julians apostasy and the writings of his entourage of Syrian-Greek pagans such as Libanius Antiochus.. Julian had tried to go back to Ancient Paganism in vain: it was like trying to keep a balloon under water. (My heuristic is that the more pagan, the more brilliant ones mind, and the higher ones ability to handle nuances and ambiguity. Judaism might have almost lost because of the mother-rule and the confinement to a tribal base, but Christianity ruled, and for the very same reasons, Islam did. For Islam itself is ending up being taken over (in the Sunni branch) by the purists simply because these were more intolerant than the rest: the Wahhabis, founders of Saudi Arabia, were the ones who destroyed the shrines, and to impose the maximally intolerant rule, in a manner that was later imitated by ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria/the Levant). How do books get banned? Certainly not because they offend the average person most persons are passive and dont really care, or dont care enough to request the banning. The great philosopher and logician Bertrand Russell lost his job at the City University of New York owing to a letter by an angryand stubbornmother who did not wish to have her daughter in the same room as the fellow with dissolute lifestyle and unruly ideas. No, it is the most intolerant person who imposes virtue on others precisely because of that intolerance. We saw earlier in the chapter the asymmetry between obeying and breaking rules: a law-abiding (or rule abiding) fellow always follows the rules, but a felon or someone with looser sets of principles will not always break the rules. It turns out that, in classical Arabic, the term halal has one opposite: haram. Haram is haram and is asymmetric. The Stability of the Minority Rule, A Probabilistic Argument A probabilistic argument in favor of the minority rule dictating societal values is as follows. And one property of these laws: they are black-and-white, binary, discrete, and allow no shadow. Now it would be vastly more likely that these values emerged from a minority that the majority. What emerges from the minority rule is more likely to be be black-and-white. He has two options. Now look at the inverse problem, a collection of dead people after a dinner party, and you need to investigate the cause. The black-and-white character of these societal laws can be explained with the following. I was at a large multi-table dinner party, the kind of situation where you have to choose between the vegetarian risotto and the non-vegetarian option when I noticed that my neighbor had his food catered (including silverware) on a tray reminiscent of airplane fare. It did not bother him to be seated with prosciutto eaters who, in addition, mix butter and meat in the same dishes. But had my neighbor been a Sunni Salafi, he would have required the entire room to be eating Halal. Hopefully the entire country. The entire room was committing a legal violation. This is in fact the incoherence that Kurt Gdel (the grandmaster of logical rigor) detected in the constitution while taking the naturalisation exam. We can answer these points using the minority rule. So, we need to be more than intolerant with some intolerant minorities. The Irreverence of Markets and Science Now consider markets. Indeed this is something that only traders seem to understand: why a price can drop by ten percent because of a single seller. The overall stock markets represent currently more than thirty trillions dollars but a single order in 2008, only fifty billion, that is less than two tenth of a percent of the total, caused them to drop by close to ten percent, causing losses of around three trillion. Because the order was one-way stubbornthere was desire to sell but no way to change ones mind. We will return later with a discussion of how the minority rule is behind Karl Poppers approach to science.. But let us for now discuss the more entertaining Feynman. As reflected in the title of the book, Feynman conveys in it the idea of the fundamental irreverence of science, acting through a similar mechanism as the Kosher asymmetry. Once you debunk something, it is now wrong (that is how science operates but lets ignore disciplines such as economics and political science that are more like pompous entertainment). Alexander (or no doubt he who produced this probably apocryphal saying) understood the value of the active, intolerant, and courageous minority. At the battle of Cannae, he remarked to Gisco who complained that the Carthaginians were outnumbered by the Romans: There is one thing thats more wonderful than their numbers in all that vast number there is not one man called Gisgo. The entire growth of society, whether economic or moral, comes from a small number of people. All one needs is an asymmetric rule somewhere.
The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority
A shorter version (reduced by 97.0%) can be found on IndiaSpeaks. This is an extended summary, original article can be found here
Extended Summary:
The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority. How Europe will eat HalalWhy you dont have to smoke in the smoking sectionYour food choices on the fall of the Saudi king How to prevent a friend from working too hard Omar Sharif s conversionHow to make a market collapse T he best example I know that gives insights into the functioning of a complex system is with the following situation. The main idea behind complex systems is that the ensemble behaves in way not predicted by the components. Studying individual ants will never (one can safely say never for most such situations), never give us an idea on how the ant colony operates. The minority rule will show us how it all it takes is a small number of intolerant virtuous people with skin in the game, in the form of courage, for society to function properly.. This example of complexity hit me, ironically, as I was attending the New England Complex Systems institute summer barbecue. He didnt. There was a fine print: a tiny symbol, a U inside a circle, indicating that it was Kosher. A strange idea hit me. Why? Simply because going full Kosher allows the producer, grocer, restaurant, to not have to distinguish between Kosher and nonkosher for liquids, with special markers, separate aisles, separate inventories, different stocking sub-facilities. Or, rephrased in another domain: A disabled person will not use the regular bathroom but a nondisabled person will use the bathroom for disabled people. Which explains why it is so hard to find peanuts on airplanes and why schools are peanut-free (which, in a way, increases the number of persons with peanut allergies as reduced exposure is one of the causes behind such allergies). And the rule is an asymmetry in choices. I once went to lunch with a friend visiting from Europe: the restaurant only had availability in the smoking sections. Two more things. But, when a population has an even spatial distribution, say the ratio of such a minority in a neighborhood is the same as that in the village, that in the village is the same as in the county, that in the county is the same as that in state, and that in the sate is the same as nationwide, then the (flexible) majority will have to submit to the minority rule. But if the manufacturing of Kosher lemonade cost substantially more, then the rule will be weakened in some nonlinear proportion to the difference in costs. For Muslim and Jews have near-identical slaughter rules (all Kosher is halal for most Sunni Muslims, or was so in past centuries, but the reverse is not true). Now consider this manifestation of the dictatorship of the minority. Close to ten percent of the chain Subway carry halal-only stores (meaning no pork), in spite of the high costs from the loss of business of nonpork stores. For instance, the 7th Century Christian Arab poet Al-Akhtal made a point to never eat halal meat, in his famous defiant poem boasting his Christianity: I do not eat sacrificial flesh One can expect the same rejection of religious norms to take place in the West as the Muslim populations in Europe grows. In the U.S. Labeling something organic is a way to say that it contains no transgenic GMOs. As I said, your snap scientific judgment is too naive in these type of decisions. How? Say you have a corporate event, a wedding, or a lavish party to celebrate the fall of the Saudi Arabian regime, the bankruptcy of the rent-seeking investment bank Goldman Sachs, or the public reviling of Ray Kotcher, chairman of Ketchum the public relation firm that smears scientists and scientific whistleblowers on behalf of big corporations. No. And as organic food (and designations such as natural) is in higher demand, from the minority rule, distribution costs decrease and the minority rule ends up accelerating in its effect. Another example: do not think that the spread of automatic shifting cars is necessarily due to the majority of drivers initially preferring automatic; it can just be because those who can drive manual shifts can always drive automatic, but the reciprocal is not true [1]. Each one of the four boxes will contain four boxes, and so all the way down, and all the way up until we reach a certain level.. There are two colors: yellow for the majority choice, and pink for the minority one. The color of the box is pink and the others yellow. will opt for nonGMO. The local grocery store realizing the neighborhood is only nonGMO switches to nonGMO to simplify life, which impacts the local wholesaler, and the stories continues and renormalizes. Galam was first to apply these renormalization techniques to social matters and political science; his name was familiar as he is the author of the main book on the subject, which had then been sitting for months in an unopened Amazon box in my basement. Galams models produced a bevy of counterintuitive effects in political science and his predictions turned out to be way closer to real outcomes than the naive consensus.. The fact we saw from the renormalization group the veto effect as a person in a group can steer choices. When there are few choices, McDonalds appears to be a safe bet. Pizza is the same story: it is commonly accepted food and outside a fancy party nobody will be blamed for ordering it. So you only need one set of glasses if you serve only winethe universal donor, to use the language of blood groups. It all started with the asymmetric rule that those who are nonnative in English know (bad) English, but the reverse (English speakers knowing other languages) is less likely. We can thus get some intuition on how the emergence of lingua franca languages can come from minority rulesand that is a point that is not visible to linguists. It was the Persians who speak an Indo-European language who spread Aramaic, the language of Assyria, Syria, and Babylon. If your secretary can only take dictation in Aramaic, Aramaic is what you will use. For during the Hellenistic era, Greek replaced Aramaic as the lingua franca in the Levant, and the scribes of Damascus maintained their records in Greek. A French Canadian friend from Montreal, Jean-Louis Rheault, commented as follows, bemoaning the loss of language of French Canadians outside narrowly provincial areas. The original Islamic rulers werent particularly interested in converting Christians as these provided them with tax revenues the proselytism of Islam did not address those called people of the book, i. In fact, my ancestors who survived thirteen centuries under Muslim rule saw advantages in not being Muslim: mostly in the avoidance of military conscription. Second, becoming Muslim is irreversible, as apostasy is the heaviest crime under the religion, sanctioned by the death penalty. He later divorced, but did not revert to the faith of his ancestors. Likewise, one can see how Judaism doesnt spread and tends to stay in the minority, as the religion has opposite rules: the mother is required to be Jewish, causing interfaith marriages to leave the community. Egypt has a flat terrain. allows the asymmetric rule to prevail) we saw earlier in the chapter that for Kosher rules to work, one needed Jews to be somewhat spread out across the country. Egypts Copts suffered from another problem: the irreversibility of Islamic conversions. Little by little a Christian or Jewish family bearing the marrano-style conversion becomes truly converted, as, a couple of generations later, the descendants forget the arrangement of their ancestors. Roman pagans were initially tolerant of Christians, as the tradition was to share gods with other members of the empire. But Christians were intolerant of Roman paganism. All we have is the bit we know about the reversion to Christianity during the emperor Julians apostasy and the writings of his entourage of Syrian-Greek pagans such as Libanius Antiochus.. Julian had tried to go back to Ancient Paganism in vain: it was like trying to keep a balloon under water. (My heuristic is that the more pagan, the more brilliant ones mind, and the higher ones ability to handle nuances and ambiguity. Judaism might have almost lost because of the mother-rule and the confinement to a tribal base, but Christianity ruled, and for the very same reasons, Islam did. For Islam itself is ending up being taken over (in the Sunni branch) by the purists simply because these were more intolerant than the rest: the Wahhabis, founders of Saudi Arabia, were the ones who destroyed the shrines, and to impose the maximally intolerant rule, in a manner that was later imitated by ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria/the Levant). How do books get banned? Certainly not because they offend the average person most persons are passive and dont really care, or dont care enough to request the banning. The great philosopher and logician Bertrand Russell lost his job at the City University of New York owing to a letter by an angry and stubborn mother who did not wish to have her daughter in the same room as the fellow with dissolute lifestyle and unruly ideas. No, it is the most intolerant person who imposes virtue on others precisely because of that intolerance. We saw earlier in the chapter the asymmetry between obeying and breaking rules: a law-abiding (or rule abiding) fellow always follows the rules, but a felon or someone with looser sets of principles will not always break the rules. It turns out that, in classical Arabic, the term halal has one opposite: haram. Haram is haram and is asymmetric. A probabilistic argument in favor of the minority rule dictating societal values is as follows. And one property of these laws: they are black-and-white, binary, discrete, and allow no shadow. Now it would be vastly more likely that these values emerged from a minority that the majority. What emerges from the minority rule is more likely to be be black-and-white. He has two options. Now look at the inverse problem, a collection of dead people after a dinner party, and you need to investigate the cause. The black-and-white character of these societal laws can be explained with the following. Clearly can democracy by definition the majoritytolerate enemies? The question is as follows: Would you agree to deny the freedom of speech to every political party that has in its charter the banning the freedom of speech?. Lets go one step further, Should a society that has elected to be tolerant be intolerant about intolerance? This is in fact the incoherence that Kurt Gdel (the grandmaster of logical rigor) detected in the constitution while taking the naturalization exam. I wrote about people with logical flaws asking me if one should be skeptical about skepticism; I used a similar answer as Popper when was asked if one could falsify falsification. Actually, as we saw, it will eventually destroy our world. The West is currently in the process of committing suicide. Yes, the most motivated rules. Markets react in a way that is disproportional to the impetus. Why did the market react so disproportionately? Because the order was one-way stubbornthere was desire to sell but no way to change ones mind. And the best way to detect a sucker (say the usual finance journalist) is to see if his focus is on the size of the door or on that of the theater. We will return later with a discussion of how the minority rule is behind Karl Poppers approach to science. is the title of a book of anecdotes by the great Richard Feynman, the most irreverent and playful scientist of his day. Science isnt the sum of what scientists think, but exactly as with markets, a procedure that is highly skewed. Alexander said that it was preferable to have an army of sheep led by a lion to an army of lions led by a sheep. He was inspired by a version of this maxim. This large payoff from stubborn courage is not just in the military. Society doesnt evolve by consensus, voting, majority, committees, verbose meeting, academic conferences, and polling; only a few people suffice to disproportionately move the needle. [3] Note some minor variations across regions and Islamic sects. [4] The various modes of worship, which prevailed in the Roman world, were all considered by the people, as equally true; by the philosopher, as equally false; and by the magistrate, as equally useful. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.
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