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[Intermediate] Z Score Help (statistics and probability)
Hi! Not sure of the ''level discipline'', but I assume intermediate is about right. I'm trying to make this Z score formula work, but I'm struggling and consistently getting data that makes no sense to me, although my maths is basic at best. The formula is: Z = [N x (R – 0.5) – P] / [(P x (P – N)] / (N – 1)]½ When: N is the total number of trades during a series; R is the total number of series of winning and losing trades; P equals 2 x W x L W is the total number of winning trades during a series L is the total number of losing trades during a series Individual series can be represented by a consecutive sequence of pluses or minuses (for example ++++ or —). R counts the number of such series. (source https://www.autochartist.com/66578-2/) I'm trying to use this formula on fundamental market data for Forex, for example USD Retail Sales. Fundamental Forex data comes out with an Actual and a Forecast, if the actual is above the forecast then this is good for the currency and if it is below or equal to the forecast, then this is bad for the currency, so I count above as a + and below or equal to as a -. Observe the following data and calculation for USD CPI data on the month of September 2017 (source https://www.forexfactory.com/#graph=87439) +,-,-,-,-,-,+,+,-,-,-,-,+,-,-,+,-,-,+,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-. R=6 W=6 L=24 P=2x6x24=288 z=(30x(6-0.5)-288)/[(288x(288-30)]/(30-1)]1/2 z=-2.43 My understanding of this formula is that with z being close to -3, the following month after Sep 17 should be + (above actual) but this was not the case and testing this formula at multiple points on multiple data sets yields similar results, so I'm either interpreting the data wrong, entering something wrong, or this just doesn't work! But if someone could please let me know I'd really appreciate it and if you know a better formula or model for this then I'd love to hear it! Many thanks, Lucas
NZD/CHF continues to rise inside the clear hourly Up Channel chart pattern which was previously identified by Autochartist. Autochartist rates the quality of this Up Channel at the 6-bar level – which reflects the slow Initial Trend (one bar), significant Uniformity (8 bars) and maximum Clarity (10 bars). NZD/CHF is expected to rise further inside this Up Channel – in line with the earlier breakout of the resistance area shown below. dailyfximage1 As can be seen from the daily NZD/CHF chart below, the price earlier broke through the resistance area lying between the resistance level 0.6820 (which stopped the 3 previous minor corrections from the middle of November) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from last month. This price zone is acting as support area after it was broken. The proximity of this support area increases the probability NZD/CHF will continue to rise inside this Up Channel. [email protected] To subscribe to the e-mail alerts feature is quick and easy. Log into the Autochartist platform, click on ‘Alerts & Messaging’, enter your email address, select the market you want covered, select your language, and the time you want to get your report, and you’re done! You will now receive a quick morning technical outlook of the markets. Article written by Autochartist. Details: https://agenatrader.com/daily-forex-update-nzdchf/
Hi! I'm trying to make this Z score formula work, but I'm struggling and consistently getting data that makes no sense to me, although my maths is basic at best. The formula is: Z = [N x (R – 0.5) – P] / [(P x (P – N)] / (N – 1)]½ When: N is the total number of trades during a series; R is the total number of series of winning and losing trades; P equals 2 x W x L W is the total number of winning trades during a series L is the total number of losing trades during a series Individual series can be represented by a consecutive sequence of pluses or minuses (for example ++++ or —). R counts the number of such series. (source https://www.autochartist.com/66578-2/) I'm trying to use this formula on fundamental market data for Forex, for example USD Retail Sales. Fundamental Forex data comes out with an Actual and a Forecast, if the actual is above the forecast then this is good for the currency and if it is below or equal to the forecast, then this is bad for the currency, so I count above as a + and below or equal to as a -. Observe the following data and calculation for USD CPI data on the month of September 2017 (source https://www.forexfactory.com/#graph=87439) +,-,-,-,-,-,+,+,-,-,-,-,+,-,-,+,-,-,+,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-. R=6 W=6 L=24 P=2x6x24=288 z=(30x(6-0.5)-288)/[(288x(288-30)]/(30-1)]1/2 z=-2.43 My understanding of this formula is that with z being close to -3, the following month after Sep 17 should be + (above actual) but this was not the case and testing this formula at multiple points on multiple data sets yields similar results, so I'm either interpreting the data wrong, entering something wrong, or this just doesn't work! But if someone could please let me know I'd really appreciate it and if you know a better formula or model for this then I'd love to hear it! I have also posted this to a stats group and a general maths help group here on reddit, but I've had no luck so trying this group. Many thanks, Lucas
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